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Majority opposed to Afghan mission
24/02/06 , Globe and Mail

A robust majority of Canadians say they would opt against sending troops to Afghanistan and would like to see parliamentarians have the opportunity to vote on the issue.

The results are included in a Globe and Mail/CTV poll that suggests the new Conservative government may have to be careful when and if it decides to extend the 18-month commitment for the Provincial Reconstruction Team in Kandahar. That obligation is in its sixth month and ends a year from now. Moreover, a Canadian general takes command of the NATO forces in southern Afghanistan on March 1.

"I'm very, very surprised at the degree of opposition to something that is not well known by the population," said Allan Gregg, chairman of the Strategic Counsel, which conducted the poll.

"I think you've got a knee-jerk against doing anything with the Americans, especially on the military front, but also part of this distinctiveness and difference with the United States is our unwarlike nature."

The poll found that 62 per cent of Canadians are against sending troops to Afghanistan, while only 27 per cent are in favour. Furthermore, 73 per cent of those surveyed said parliamentarians should have the chance to vote on deployment.

It's unclear at this point whether the Canadian tour of duty will be extended, although some defence officials expect it will be.

Yesterday, Defence Minister Gordon O'Connor promised unflagging government support for the deployment of the 2,200 Canadian troops in the country. The soldiers are facing an increasingly dangerous insurgency bent on the downfall of U.S.-backed President Hamid Karzai.

"Not only is our deployment to Afghanistan the largest and most important Canadian Forces operation at the moment, it's also quite representative of the type of missions that our military will be called upon to perform in the future," Mr. O'Connor said.

The poll of 1,000 Canadians was taken Feb. 16-19 and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 95 per cent of the time.

The numbers suggest that Canadians are supportive of increasing the size of the military and like the idea of spending more money on it. But Canadians are still skeptical about taking part in international conflicts that aren't seen as peacekeeping ventures or that are part of a U.S.-led effort.

Former prime minister Jean Chrétien decided in 2003 that Canada would not participate in the U.S.-led war in Iraq.

Mr. Gregg said support for the increased spending commitments represents the "table stakes" that Canadians would be willing to pay in order to have a more significant voice in international affairs.

On the question of how Canadians would vote on the issue of sending troops, 76 per cent of Quebeckers were against the idea, while 56 per cent of respondents in Western Canada -- who are seen to be closer in values to the United States -- also do not like the idea.

Quebeckers were also the most likely to want their MPs to have a say in the matter, with 83 per cent saying there should be a vote.

On a related question, the poll found that among those who support sending troops, 31 per cent would change their minds if the operation leads to significant casualties.

The poll also found a split over whether Canada should participate in the war on terrorism. Of those surveyed, 48 per cent supported participation, while 43 per cent were against.

Mr. Gregg said Prime Minister Stephen Harper will have to be cautious in how he manages Canada's relationship with the United States in general.

If the Conservative Leader really is intent on having his party wrest away from the Liberals their traditional role as the party of Canadian nationalism, Mr. Harper cannot be seen to cave in to U.S. requests.

Mr. Gregg said he expects Mr. Harper will have a two-pronged strategy toward the Americans that will try to repair strained relations while being seen to defend Canadians' rights.

He may, for example, discuss such issues as Canadian involvement in ballistic missile defence, while at the same time pushing forward with such issues as Canadian sovereignty over the Arctic.

Polling on Afghanistan

Should a decision to send troops to Afghanistan require parliamentary approval?

Yes: 73%

No: 20%

Don't know: 7%

If you were an MP would you vote in favour of sending troops to Afghanistan?

Yes: 27%

No: 62%

Don't know: 11%

Would your position change if you knew it might lead to significant casualties?*

Yes: 31%

No: 64%

Don't know: 5%

4. Do Canadians think Canada should be participating in the war on terrorism?

Yes: 48%

No: 43%

Don't know: 9%

*This question asked only to those who voted yes to the previous question.

SOURCE: STRATEGIC COUNSEL
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