promises, politically motivated

Tory defence plans long on ambition, short on financing: analysts
February 18, 2006 Canadian Press

OTTAWA -- Conservative election promises to bolster the military with new ships, soldiers and an Arctic force are long on ambition, but may have come up short on money, say defence analysts.

The Tories promised to recruit 13,000 new, full-time soldiers and another 10,000 reservists; to build three heavy, armed icebreakers, an Arctic deepsea port and a surveillance system to keep watch over the North; and to buy new ships and planes.

They pledged to add $5.3 billion to the defence budget over five years.

Details remain sketchy, with Defence Minister Gordon O'Connor expected to start fleshing out the policy skeleton later this year. That process may begin in the new government's first budget, expected shortly after Parliament resumes in April. ...

Dan Middlemiss, director of the Centre for Foreign Policy Studies at Halifax's Dalhousie University, says that seems very low. ... The Canadian American Security Review, published at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia, is also doubtful about the Conservative accounting. ...

The plan to recruit 13,000 new troops, for example, is ambitious.

"There's a lot of people rolling their eyes at that," says Middlemiss. "They're facing really tough demographic issues in attracting folks right now."

The military feeds on the shrinking pool of 18-to 24-year-olds in the population. Over the last three years, recruiters have signed up 10,000 people a year, regulars and reservists, just to keep the ranks static. The Tory plan to more than double the Liberal promise of 5,000 regulars will strain recruiting and training capabilities.

Szeto said the military is having trouble keeping the soldiers it has, much less trying to find more during economic good times. ...

"Let's face it: economic prosperity will make the employment landscape even more competitive, with the Canadian Forces being unable to be as appealing an employer."

This recruiting drive comes at a time when the military is offering bonuses of up to $10,000 to civilians or former soldiers with certain needed skills. Doctors and dentists willing to sign up for four years can get bonuses of up to $250,000.

And the new bodies will add to the overall bill. Just paying 13,000 privates will cost $377 million a year, before they are outfitted, equipped or trained. ...

"All of these promises were politically motivated," says Staples. "They weren't based on any objective study of what the threats are to Canada and what is needed to address them - and certainly not on the cost."
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