spectacular they say

sound familiar; shock and awe, has been reversed and replaced by "spectacular enemy incidents" ... "largely to catch the attention of the international press."

Preparing for the worst
March 15, 2006, CanWest News

GOMBAD, Afghanistan -- Canadian and coalition forces are bracing for a series of "spectacular enemy incidents" -- including possible suicide bombings or other attacks -- expected to begin over the coming days across southern Afghanistan, says the commander of the Canadian task force in Kandahar.

"I anticipate a spring offensive by the Taliban," Lt.-Col. Ian Hope said in an interview Tuesday from this remote army operating base in the mountains north of Kandahar city.

"I'm expecting a number of spectacular displays, in three to five locations in the southern provinces, largely to catch the attention of the international press."

Hope is in the mountains this week commanding a major army operation, in which platoons of Canadian soldiers are making daily visits to rural villages, to show military muscle, meet village leaders and try to observe enemy movements.

Hope would not say precisely what information he has that suggests a renewed series of attacks. However, Taliban actions may be timed to coincide with the Islamic new year on March 20.

He said a "spring offensive" by the Taliban would not involve large numbers of insurgents shooting at Canadian soldiers.

"Because they can't mass large forces, they'll try launching attacks like suicide bombings, that are more spectacular than combative," Hope said.

He said the Taliban hasn't pulled off a high-profile attack since Jan. 15, when a suicide bomber killed Canadian diplomat Glyn Berry and wounded several soldiers.

"They need another hit, or series of hits like that to gain profile on the world stage," he said. "It's only a matter of time."

The offensive may have already begun, with the kidnapping this week of four Albanian aid workers by the Taliban.

Military officials say there are other signs that the Taliban are on the move.

In the lawless provinces of southern Afghanistan, officials say insurgents have posted threatening letters, at night, on the doors of local mosques.

The letters describe coalition soldiers as "infidels," and warn local farmers to grow poppies for the opium trade, or face retribution.

On Monday, Canadian troops swept through one village where "night letters" had reportedly been left, but they failed to find any copies.

In spite of his projections, Hope admitted Tuesday that the army's knowledge of Taliban movements remains, at best, an educated guess. Official intelligence reports -- gleaned partly from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) spy-plane photos -- provide a stream of conflicting data that 60 to 600 insurgents are moving into Kandahar province from Pakistan.

More reliable, he said, is information gleaned by soldiers from talking to local village leaders.

"We've had three incidents in the last several days where local people have said to us, 'The Taliban are there, and there and there,"' said Hope, pointing by example to the cave-strewn mountains that surround this base.

Army commanders aren't sure whether insurgents are using Kandahar province as a base of operations, or if they're simply using the area's mountain paths as transit routes from bases in Pakistan to poppy-growing areas elsewhere in Afghanistan.

Said Hope: "We have no concrete evidence, no hard reporting, of what the Taliban are doing."

Hope led an army patrol Tuesday into Gombad, a large Afghan village in the heart of the rugged region where Canada is trying to enforce security this year.

After walking the mud-walled alleyways and orchards of this poor farming community, and handing out transistor radios, ball-point pens and other small gifts to the people who greeted him, he sat down for an open-air tea with the town's senior elder.

"We at last feel secure enough to go out and work on our farms," the leader said through an interpreter, "but we still feel afraid at night, that the Taliban will return."