i predict a short shelf life ...

Signs of hope for Harper as Commons sits for first time since winter election
April 3, 2006

OTTAWA (CP) - The afterglow of the election has faded, a cabinet has been named, the agenda has been set. Now it's time for Stephen Harper to start testing the shelf life of his minority government in the House of Commons.

With just 125 of the 308 seats filled by Conservatives, the coming session won't be a cakewalk for the prime minister.

But there are signs he could have an easier time than predecessor Paul Martin, whose Liberal minority government spent most of its 18 months in power lurching from vote to vote before it finally fell.

With an eye to avoiding a similar fate, Harper is trying to keep things simple and manageable.

Once the formality of electing a new Commons Speaker is out of the way Monday, the Tories will lay out their legislative agenda in a throne speech Tuesday - an event that may turn out to be notable largely for its lack of drama.

"It's going to be shorter than most throne speeches, concise and direct," said one strategist. "It's going to set a clear direction and reflect the prime minister's style . . . . There will be no surprises."

Harper has already said he wants to stick to five major priorities in his early months in power. Three will likely find wide support:

-A new Accountability Act, aimed at exorcising the ethical demons of the sponsorship scandal by reforming party financing, lobbying practices, patronage appointments and the Access to Information Act.

-A crackdown on crime, an area where Harper can expect some co-operation from the opposition, at least on key initiatives like toughening sentences for gun offences.

-An effort to shorten health care waiting lists - something easier said than done, but a goal shared by in principle by all parties.

The other two items on the government's five-point agenda are more problematic.

Harper has promised a new approach to child care, with tax breaks of $1,200 a year to parents for each kid aged under six. But to finance that initiative, he will have to renege on $5 billion the Martin Liberals promised to provincial governments to fund day care centres.

Harper bills his policy as a grassroots effort to put money into the hands of moms and dads and let them decide how to spend it. The Liberals say cancelling the payments to the provinces are an abdication of federal responsibility and promise to fight him.

They also think Harper is vulnerable on the fifth element of his agenda - a pledge to lop a point off the seven-per-cent GST immediately and another point eventually.

The wrinkle here is that, to afford the GST cut, the Tories will have to repeal personal income tax reductions brought in under Martin. The Grits believe they have the makings of an early challenge to Harper on that point.

"Canadians will wonder why their personal income taxes went down last year - but just for one year - and now they have jumped back up again," says Ralph Goodale, the onetime finance minister turned Opposition House leader.

The New Democrats don't like the Tory child care or tax plans either, although NDP Leader Jack Layton has spent as much time berating the Liberals lately as he has attacking Haprer.

The Grits first promised a national day care system in 1993, Layton noted Sunday in a speech to his party's governing council.

In his view, the fact that they never delivered during 12 years in power robs them of credibility on the issue. "The Liberals just don't get it," said Layton.

In theory, the rumblings on the left could spell trouble for the Conservatives when Finance Minister Jim Flaherty brings in his first budget later this spring.

In practice, it's hard to imagine the opposition defeating that budget - a move that would topple Harper's government and force weary voters back to the polls for the third time in two years.

All parties are aware the electorate could rebel and punish anyone who takes that route.

The Liberals have an additional reason for avoiding a showdown, at least for the time being. They're in the midst of choosing a new leader, a process that won't be complete until December.

The Bloc Quebecois is licking its wounds, after a winter campaign in which it unexpectedly lost ground to the Tories in Quebec, and wouldn't relish another test at this point.

The NDP, although it has gained seats at Liberal expense, needs more time to consolidate its forces before renewing the battle.

Those political realities are forcing Harper's opponents to walk a fine line, denouncing his policies but shying away from any promises to drive him from office.

Goodale, in a speech last week laying out the Liberal game plan for the spring session, was careful to note that the Grits "not going to vote in a capricious manner" on confidence measures.

Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe was also circumspect at a recent caucus meeting. "We're not going to fold on our convictions," Duceppe insisted, but neither will he pull the plug on Harper "just for the pleasure of having an election."

Layton was careful as well on Sunday, saying he'd prefer negotiation to confrontation. He noted, for example, that the NDP successfully pressured the Liberals to boost social spending by $4.5 billion in last year's budget.

"We're in a somewhat similar position here," he said. "It remains to be seen how Mr. Harper will work with us.'