Friday, January 19, 2007

election timing and afghanistan?

Election timing linked to war
Carlito Pablo / January 18, 2007 / Vancouver Free Press / Straight.com

Dawn Black, the NDP’s defence critic, thinks Afghanistan will be a factor in the Conservatives’ election call; Liberal Ujjal Dosanjh downplays divisions in his party.

The fighting conditions in Afghanistan could influence the timing of Canada’s next federal election, according to a UBC political science professor.

Michael Byers, academic director of UBC’s Liu Institute for Global Issues, told the Georgia Straight that he wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservative government were to call an election this winter instead of next spring.

“At the moment, Afghanistan is not a big issue because Canadian soldiers are not dying,” he said. “When snow melts in the mountain[s] and the spring harvest has happened...things will become much more dangerous again.”

Election timing linked to war
Carlito Pablo / January 18, 2007 / Vancouver Free Press / Straight.com

Dawn Black, the NDP’s defence critic, thinks Afghanistan will be a factor in the Conservatives’ election call; Liberal Ujjal Dosanjh downplays divisions in his party.
The fighting conditions in Afghanistan could influence the timing of Canada’s next federal election, according to a UBC political science professor.

Michael Byers, academic director of UBC’s Liu Institute for Global Issues, told the Georgia Straight that he wouldn’t be surprised if the Conservative government were to call an election this winter instead of next spring.

“At the moment, Afghanistan is not a big issue because Canadian soldiers are not dying,” he said. “When snow melts in the mountain[s] and the spring harvest has happened...things will become much more dangerous again.”

Canada has not suffered any casualties since a November 27, 2006, suicide bombing killed two members of the Royal Canadian Regiment operating in southern Afghanistan. The attack brought the total number of Canadian soldiers killed since 2002 to 44.

Most of Canada’s casualties—36—were sustained between the months of March and November last year. Citing the experience of the British during the 19th century and the Soviets in the 1980s, Byers said that fighting in Afghanistan declines in the winter and picks up again not only in the spring but also in the fall. He added that the same pattern has been noted since 2001, after the U.S. invaded Afghanistan.

“I’m sure that [Prime Minister] Stephen Harper is aware of it as well,” he said. “It’s possible that this will be one of the considerations that factors into his decision on when he wants an election.”

Byers said that if Harper “waits with the election until, let’s say, May, he is taking the risk that we could have literally dozens of casualties in the heat of an election campaign, which would be contrary to his political interests”.

“There are many considerations that the prime minister has about an election date, but I would expect that the fighting conditions in Afghanistan would be one of those,” he said. “If that were the only reason, the only factor, it would point to an earlier election.”

NDP defence critic Dawn Black (New Westminster–Coquitlam) told the Straight that Afghanistan is “one of the issues that will be quite central to the election campaign”.

“It’s quite possible this year,” Black said when asked if Canadians should expect an election soon. The House of Commons will resume session by the end of January, and Black said: “I think we’ll get an idea then on how things will play out.”

Last May, a motion to extend Canada’s mission in Afghanistan until 2009 passed with a narrow 149–145 vote. The NDP and Bloc Québécois voted against the motion, while the Liberals were split. Quebec MP Stéphane Dion, now the Liberal leader, voted against the motion, and Ontario MP Michael Ignatieff, whom Dion has appointed party deputy leader, cast an affirmative vote.

In an interview with the Straight, Liberal defence critic Ujjal Dosanjh (Vancouver South) downplayed the apparent division within the party on how to deal with Afghanistan.

“There isn’t a party I know where everybody is a robot and they all think alike,” said Dosanjh, who voted against the extension of the mission. “The Liberal party has vigorous discussions on these issues, and eventually the majority prevails.”

Byers noted that although Dion has said that he wants a new approach to Afghanistan, no details have so far emerged, a situation the professor attributes to the disagreement within the party about its Afghanistan policy.

“I think they have to come up with a more homogenous and clearly thought through position for the simple reason that, at the moment, they are in an ambiguous and divided position that will not win them many votes in places like Quebec,” Byers said. “You cannot go into a campaign with a divided party on an issue as important as Afghanistan.”

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