leaked emerson poll

Liberals more popular than Emerson in his riding
Poll done in October found only 25% knew he was their MP
Peter O'Neil, CanWest News Service
February 08, 2006

OTTAWA - David Emerson, despite his high-profile national role as British Columbia's senior federal minister in Ottawa, wasn't known by most of his Vancouver Kingsway constituents before the 2006 campaign began, according to a poll obtained by The Vancouver Sun.

The Mustel Group survey conducted last October found only one-quarter of respondents could identify Mr. Emerson, widely criticized for abandoning the Liberals on Monday to join Stephen Harper's Tory Cabinet as a star recruit, as their member of Parliament.

"Perhaps as further evidence of the relatively low profile of David Emerson amongst voters in his riding, 90% could not name a single accomplishment since being elected to the riding,'' Mustel Group president Evi Mustel advised the Liberal party in her 22-page analysis of the October, 2005, survey results.

The poll, leaked to the Sun by Liberals furious at Mr. Emerson's defection, also showed he was less popular than the Liberal party and had a performance rating statistically equal to that of NDP opponent Ian Waddell.

The poll suggests Mr. Emerson would have had an extremely difficult time winning that seat had he run for the Conservatives, added Ms. Mustel, one of B.C.'s leading pollsters.

"I would say it would have been a very tough, tough win for him given the history of the riding,'' said Ms. Mustel, who produced the most comprehensive and accurate public polling in B.C. during the campaign.

Conservatives have only won the Vancouver Kingsway riding, established in 1952, once, and that was in John Diefenbaker's 1958 national landslide.

It was primarily a stronghold of the New Democratic Party and the NDP's predecessor party, the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation, though it has more recently been held by the Liberals.

Ms. Mustel, who agreed to an interview after obtaining permission from the Liberals, said the data from her 2005 poll suggests Mr. Emerson would have a difficult time getting re-elected as a Tory.

Mr. Emerson lives in Liberal MP Stephen Owen's upper-income Vancouver Quadra riding, and on Monday political scientist Philip Resnick speculated the new International Trade Minister could run in a more attractive riding in the next election.

"I think he could win as a Conservative," Ms. Mustel said of Mr. Emerson's prospects in the working-class, immigrant-heavy Vancouver Kingsway riding.

"But it would be a challenge to win in that riding, mainly because of the history of that riding.''

The Vancouver Kingsway poll involved 301 interviews from Oct. 4-12, 2005, and is considered accurate to within 5.7 per centage points, 19 times out of 20.

The Mustel poll had some surprising conclusions that may provide clues as to why Mr. Emerson took some unusually aggressive stands during the campaign, accusing the Tories of being "heartless'' and the NDP simple-minded:

- Asked to identify Mr. Emerson's accomplishments, 3% mentioned Mr. Emerson's status as a minister, 2% said he was outspoken on softwood lumber, 2% mentioned he promoted B.C. business development, and 1% referred to his support for Western issues.

Three per cent mentioned "miscellaneous" items and the remaining 90% wouldn't or couldn't mention anything.

- Respondents were then asked to rate Mr. Emerson's performance, and he got a 34% approval rating, compared to Mr. Waddell's 37% rating.

Mustel said the two were statistically tied since the gap was smaller than the 5.7% error margin.

- The poll, conducted when the Liberals had a significant popularity lead in B.C., indicated 53% of decided respondents would vote Liberal, 31% backed the NDP and 10% backed the Conservatives.

By election day, when the Tories had surged into the lead nationally and in B.C., the Liberals under Mr. Emerson ended up with 44% of the vote, compared to 34% for Mr. Waddell and 19% for Tory Kanman Wong, who was considered one of the weaker Conservative candidates in B.C.
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