afghan 20 years?

with more opinions being spoken from other countries, i think this issue has to be debated in parliament; and if nothing else we have a right to know what direction canada's foreign policy is taking with this, in the long run ...

Afghan endgame '20 years away'
The Australian, March 20, 2006

THE objectives of the coalition mission to Afghanistan could take as long as 20 years to achieve, according to a confidential British Ministry of Defence briefing.

The assessment by senior military officers highlights the risks to foreign troops, including Australians, and warns that even in five years the best that can be hoped for in terms of security and stabilisation would be "interim status".

The disclosure contrasts with assurances given to the House of Commons by British Defence Secretary John Reid that the mission would be completed in three years.

Australia is likely to have about 500 military personnel in Afghanistan by August as part of Canberra's contribution to the international coalition fighting terrorism.

Last week, 110 members of the army's 5th aviation regiment together with two Chinook helicopters left for Afghanistan. They will be fully operational by the end of March and will join a 200-strong Australian special forces group already engaged in combat operations against Taliban and al-Qa'ida forces in southeastern Afghanistan.

Questioned last month about the danger that troops could end up bogged down in southern Afghanistan, Mr Reid told MPs: "We will make our judgment on the basis of changes on the ground: extension of central government control, a reduction in insurgency, growth of the Afghan security forces and economic development.

"The exit strategy involves one of the entrance aims: the achievement of a degree of success in all those respects in a relatively short time -- three years -- in the south."

However, the Ministry of Defence briefing -- given to NATO allies involved in Afghanistan -- reveals that it expects only an interim degree of success in five years in meeting these aims and in combating narcotics.

The "endgame" is estimated to require 15 to 20 years, suggesting that Australian and British troops may be in the country for far longer than has been acknowledged.

It is a view echoed by former US secretary of state Colin Powell.

He warned the Canadian Government last week that its troops in southern Afghanistan should prepare for an "extended" military campaign and that it should not put a time limit on their stay. He emphasised the deteriorating security situation, pointing out: "There are Taliban elements that want to continue the fight."

More than 1700 people were killed in Taliban attacks last year and there has been a recent spate of suicide bombings.

The Helmand province in the south is regarded as the centre of Taliban activity in Afghanistan. More than half the schools there have been closed down by attacks.

But Afghan intelligence reports suggest the military threat may not be as great as feared, with fewer than 300 Taliban fighters in Helmand under five local commanders. These are all under the control of Mullah Dadullah, the Taliban's one-legged former intelligence chief, who is believed to be based across the Pakistani border in Quetta.

Apart from a "Taliban/al-Qa'ida backlash", one of the main risks to Coalition troops emphasised in the briefing is that of a "hostile backlash" to counter-narcotics activity.

An advance party of British Royal Marines and Royal Engineers has arrived in Helmand as barracks are built in the main towns of Lashkar Gah and Grishk. But the main deployment of elements of the 16 Air Assault Brigade, including the Parachute Regiment's 3rd Battalion, has been delayed until mid-year.

The mission will be backed up by six Chinook and four Lynx helicopters as well as by Britain's first deployment of eight Apache attack helicopters.

A Ministry of Defence spokesman said this weekend that the troops and equipment would not be in place until July.

One senior officer admitted he was worried the slow build-up would play into the hands of the Taliban, whose propaganda claims western nations are frightened to move into southern Afghanistan and are thus endlessly delaying. "We need to come in with a real show of power to show we mean business, not this drip, drip effect," he said. "It makes us look vulnerable."

Senior British officials privately concede that the biggest threat to the troops may well come from across the border in Pakistan, where the Taliban are believed to receive their training and funding.